January 26, 2005
State and national housing sales hit record highs in 2004, boosted by mortgage rates near historic lows, according to preliminary figures released yesterday, but with rates expected to drift upward, few in the real estate industry expect that pace to be matched in 2005.
"2004 was a great year, a record year," said Richard J. Loughlin, the president and chief operating officer of the central New England regional office of Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage.
In the Bay State, the condo market remained robust in December, but for the fourth time in five months, sales for detached single-family homes dipped on a year-to-year basis, according to a report on December sales released by the Massachusetts Association of Realtors.
In December, the number of single-family homes sold statewide was 3,959, down 1.5 percent from a year ago, the group said. By historical standards, that was still a decent performance, according to the association.
But while the December median sale price for a single family was $342,500, up 10.5 percent from December 2003, it was down 1 percent from November 2004 and down 4.9 percent from the record monthly high of $360,000 set in June. In four of the last six months, single family homes had month-to-month price declines.
"We cannot continue to sustain a record-breaking pace year after year," said Maggie Tomkiewicz, the president of the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. "We expect to see moderation in 2005, but nothing huge."
The condo segment of the market shows few signs of moderation. Statewide condo sales have posted year-to-year gains for 20 consecutive months, and last month's sales set a December record, the realtors group said. December condo sales rose 23.4 percent to 1,584 compared with December 2003.
"I continue to be surprised by the strength of the condo market," said Chuck Lemire, executive vice president and regional director for RE/MAX New England.
Nationwide, 2004 was a record year for existing home sales for the fourth straight year, according to the National Association of Realtors; 6.68 million existing homes sold during the year, up 9.4 percent from 2003.
At a seasonally adjusted annual rate, the sales pace for December slipped from the previous month.
"Our sense was that November sales were the peak for the current housing cycle, but activity remains strong," said David Lereah, the group's chief economist, in a prepared statement. "There is no sign of a downturn. Home sales will continue at historically high levels, and 2005 is expected to be the second-best year on record for the housing market."
The national median sales price for an existing home in December was $188,900, up 8.1 percent on a year-to-year basis. For all of 2004, the national median price was $184,100, up 8.3 percent from 2003. It was the biggest annual increase since an 11.7 percent jump in 1980.
For Massachusetts condos, the December median selling price was $265,000, up 15.2 percent from December 2003. The condo median sales price set a monthly record of $273,900 in August. For all of 2004, the number of single-family homes sold statewide was 51,429, according to preliminary estimates by the Massachusetts realtors group, up 8.3 percent from 2003. The previous record of 50,401 sales was set in 1998.
The realtors group projected that 19,943 condos were sold in Massachusetts in 2004, up 26.8 percent from 2003, which had set the previous condo record.
Both statewide and nationwide sales got a boost from low mortgage rates, which make home purchases more affordable.
Citing data from Freddie Mac, a large purchaser of mortgages, the National Association of Realtors said the 2004 average for a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage was 5.84 percent, the second lowest annual average since Freddie Mac started tracking rates; the lowest was 5.83 percent in 2003.
